The aspiration of achieving global net-zero emissions by 2050 appears increasingly remote, according to the latest analysis released by BP. The energy company’s revised outlook substantially increases its long-term forecasts for both oil and gas, reflecting a global energy system that is decelerating its pivot towards clean energy and remaining reliant on hydrocarbons.
The key adjustments in BP’s annual outlook are telling. Oil consumption is now projected to reach 83 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2050, an 8% rise from the previous estimate of 77 million b/d. Natural gas demand is also forecast to sustain its resilience, predicted to hit 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, the anticipated date for global peak oil demand has been pushed back by five years, now expected to reach 103 million b/d in 2030, reinforcing the sticky nature of current energy consumption habits.
A critical factor in this prolonged reliance on fossil fuels is the current global focus on energy security, which has been amplified by geopolitical crises. The chief economist at BP noted that the war in Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and the proliferation of trade tariffs are intensifying nations’ needs to secure domestic supply. This drive for self-sufficiency could potentially accelerate some countries toward ‘electrostates’ powered by domestic, low-carbon energy, yet it also presents a significant risk of increasing the preference for domestically produced fossil fuels over imported energy alternatives.
The implications for international climate goals are profound. BP argues that to successfully meet the 2050 net-zero target, the fall in oil demand must be radically sooner and more intense, dropping to approximately 35 million b/d by 2050. The current trajectory, however, risks severe climate consequences: BP’s modeling predicts that cumulative carbon emissions will exceed the critical 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s, significantly escalating the future economic and social costs required to mitigate global warming.
While clean energy sources are growing rapidly—with wind and solar poised to meet over 80% of the increase in electricity demand by 2035, half of it in China—they are not replacing fossil fuels quickly enough. Oil is forecast to remain the single largest source of primary global energy supply, retaining a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are projected to increase from 10% to 15% of the primary supply by 2035 but will only surpass oil’s market share towards the end of the 2040s, underscoring the formidable challenge of rapid decarbonization.