The hope for a peaceful resolution to the Iranian crisis is fading as both sides harden their positions. Iranian Foreign Ministry officials have dismissed reports of high-level talks with US envoys as “lies.” Instead of dialogue, the US has increased its demands, calling for the total removal of enriched uranium and the return of weapons inspectors, terms that Tehran views as a demand for unconditional surrender.
The lack of a diplomatic breakthrough has had immediate consequences on the ground. The Iranian stock market plummeted on Monday, and the chief justice has publicly urged the government not to return to the negotiating table. This rejection of diplomacy suggests that the Iranian government is bracing for a kinetic solution rather than a political one.
In Washington, the debate has shifted from “if” to “how.” President Trump has reportedly been looking for decisive options that would remove the Supreme Leader from power while ensuring that Israel is shielded from the inevitable retaliation. This “detailed battle plan” is the missing piece that has so far prevented a full-scale assault, but the arrival of the carrier strike group suggests those plans may be finalized.
European nations are also moving away from their traditional role as mediators. The proposal to label the IRGC as a terrorist organization signals a fundamental shift in EU policy, aligning the continent more closely with the US and Israel. This unified Western front leaves the Iranian leadership with almost no international allies to turn to for mediation.
With the internet shut down and the death toll rising, the window for a negotiated settlement is nearly shut. The Iranian government is now preparing for what its own officials call a “form of warfare,” bracing for a strike that aims to dismantle the political fabric of the Islamic Republic once and for all.