The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its global economic growth forecast for 2026, projecting a growth rate of 3.1%, a slight increase from its previous estimate of 3.0%. Despite this upward revision, the forecast remains below the 3.5% growth seen in 2025, with expectations set for a 3.4% expansion in 2027.
Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is identified by the IMF as a key factor in mitigating the economic effects of higher energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, the benefits of AI investment are not evenly distributed worldwide, with the United States and China dominating the market by accounting for over 75% of the net demand for imported computer chips and other AI-related equipment.
The IMF cautions that potential risks to global financial stability stem from several factors, including a possible correction in AI-related stock markets, rising bond yields, increasing public debt, and cyber threats. Additionally, the organization highlights the transformative impact of AI on employment, estimating that around 40% of jobs globally could be affected in terms of task changes, job quality, or employment levels.
Inflation is projected to reach 4.7% in 2026 but is expected to ease to 4.1% by 2027. This forecast assumes the resumption of oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz by March and a moderation in the demand for AI-related products.
Among major economies, the United States is forecast to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, while China’s economy is projected to expand by 4.5% this year. India is anticipated to maintain its status as the fastest-growing major economy, with a growth rate of 7% in 2026, down slightly from 7.7% in 2025.
Emerging and developing economies are expected to see growth of 3.7% in 2026, accelerating to 4.4% in 2027. In contrast, the Middle East and Central Asia face a challenging outlook, with economic contraction anticipated this year before a recovery in 2027.
The IMF urges governments to bolster public finances and manage rising debt levels, as borrowing costs remain high and geopolitical uncertainties continue to impact the global economic landscape.