The tourism intelligence platform DataGreat has unveiled a scenario analysis examining the potential impact of prolonged tensions among Iran, Israel, and the United States on Turkey’s tourism sector, which is the country’s third-largest export industry. Alper Tekin, the founder of DataGreat, conducted this analysis using the company’s Crisis Impact Simulator, which integrates data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025. This simulator is designed to provide insights into how various geopolitical events could influence the tourism landscape in Turkey.
Turkey’s geographical proximity to the conflict is significant, as six out of its top ten source markets for tourists, including Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Iran, Bulgaria, and Georgia, are situated within approximately 3,000 kilometers of the Iran–Israel conflict zone. Tourism plays a crucial role in the Turkish economy, contributing over 11 percent to the GDP and providing direct employment for around three million people, as highlighted by World Travel & Tourism Council figures. The Crisis Impact Simulator is not a predictive tool; instead, it applies deterministic scenario rules to WTTC and World Bank data, with a generative-AI layer offering an explanatory narrative. The platform ensures accuracy by refusing outputs that cannot be corroborated with the dataset, a feature Tekin refers to as “zero hallucinations.”
The analysis explores several scenarios. In the event of regional escalation, the Simulator suggests repercussions could include airspace disruptions, increased sanctions, or rerouted travel due to insurance concerns. This is expected to primarily affect European leisure travel to Turkey, particularly from Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands, with business travel from EU countries showing more resilience. Another scenario focuses on a potential decline in Russian tourists, Turkey’s largest inbound market. The Simulator estimates a 20 to 35 percent drop in Russian visitors over a year, driven by factors such as heightened sanctions and economic pressures on the ruble, impacting regions like Antalya and Muğla that rely heavily on Russian charter flights.
A third scenario contemplates volatility in the Turkish lira against the US dollar, linked to tensions on the US-Iran axis. While a weaker lira could initially make Turkey a more attractive destination for dollar-spending tourists, it might simultaneously constrain domestic leisure spending as Turkish households adjust their budgets. Tekin emphasizes that this analysis serves as a strategic planning tool for destination management organizations and tourism operators, allowing them to anticipate potential scenarios before they materialize on the global stage.
The comprehensive simulator output, detailing vulnerabilities, mitigation strategies, and monitoring indicators for each scenario, is accessible to accredited media upon request. Additionally, these insights are supported by DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which evaluates tourism risks weekly across 42 countries in six categories. DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and based in Edirne, Turkey, offers a range of tools including the Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and Crisis Impact Simulator, all grounded in the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset.