The most economically damaging chapter of the conflict opened on Wednesday when Iran issued a Gulf energy strike warning after Israeli forces attacked the South Pars gasfield. The Revolutionary Guards named specific facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as imminent targets and ordered immediate evacuation. Oil prices surged toward $110 a barrel as the economic damage threatened to extend far beyond the Gulf.
South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas reserve, is shared between Iran and Qatar and fundamental to Iran’s gas economy. The Israeli attack — reportedly with US backing — was the first direct strike on Iranian fossil fuel production since the conflict began. Both countries had carefully avoided this move, but the decision to proceed triggered Iran’s most specific and economically damaging military threat of the entire war.
Iran’s state broadcaster identified Saudi Arabia’s Samref refinery and Jubail complex, the UAE’s al-Hosn gasfield, and Qatar’s Mesaieed and Ras Laffan installations as targets for strikes within hours. Workers and residents near these facilities were told to leave immediately. The governor of Asaluyeh province called the US-Israeli escalation “political suicide” and declared Iran was now in a full-scale economic war.
Brent crude rose to $108.60 per barrel, while European gas benchmarks climbed more than 7.5% to above €55.50 per megawatt hour. Gulf oil exports had already been slashed by 60% from pre-war levels due to sustained infrastructure attacks and Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran had continued to ship its own crude through the strait unimpeded while blocking Gulf neighbors from doing so — a strategic advantage that had shaped the conflict’s economic dimension throughout.
Qatar’s government spokesperson warned that attacking energy infrastructure threatened global energy security and regional populations. The most economically damaging chapter of the conflict had opened — one in which the Gulf’s energy sector, rather than just its military assets, was the primary battlefield. The scale of potential economic damage extended to every nation that imported Gulf energy and every market that depended on stable oil and gas prices.